How avoiding sacks entrusting QB Justin Fields has injected life into Bears offense

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After a mid-October home lo s to in , the dropped to 2-4 on the season.Aside from a fluky fourth-quarter comeback against and the in a monsoon in Week 1, the Bears had just one win on the season and that was at home against the lowly .The season seemed to be quickly spiraling out of control. The Bears were averaging 15.5 points per game, No. 31 in the NFL. was being pre sured on 50% of his dropbacks, the highest in the NFL. And he had taken 23 sacks, No. 1 most in the NFL.Worse than just the sheer volume of sacks, it was the sack rate.Because the Bears were not pa sing the ball very often, 23 sacks are even worse than that statistic sounded:Fields was sacked on 16.7% of his dropbacks, most in the NFL.The NFL average was 6.5%.The next closest QB, , had a 10.7% sack rate, which was closer to the NFL average than he was to Fields (16.7%).Where does 16.7% rank?It's the No. 1 highest sack rate we've seen Kyle Brodziak Kids Jersey in the NFL since at least 2000, which is as far back as TruMedia records go (minimum of 150 attempts). In other words, Fields had a historical sack rate in the modern pa sing era of football. The next closest for a season was Alex Smith (14.9%) in 2005 and David Carr, of the expansion (14.6%) in 2002.If you isolate only the first six weeks of the season, Carr had a slightly higher sack rate than Fields' 16.7%, but Fields would rank as the No. 2 most-sacked quarterback.But then we watched Fields go into to take on Bill Belichick in prime time, and he pulled an outright upset as the Bears beat the Patriots 33-14. And then Fields put up 29 points and 32 points in back-to-back games, lo ses to the and . And we're scratching our heads at how this same team that once averaged only 15.5 points per game and had historical sack rates is now:Scoring on 53% of their drives (No. 1 in the NFL) and averaging 31.3 points per game (No. 5 in the NFL).Wildly, a lot of it is related to avoiding sacks on third down and in the red zone.Let's begin our forensic analysis by looking at early-down efficiency, as so much of a team's ability to score points relate to bypa sing third downs.Early Downs Weeks 1-6:Percentage of early downs to gain a first down: 21.1% (No. 30)EPA/play on early downs: -0.08 (No. 27)Early Downs Weeks 7-9:Percentage of early downs to gain a first down: 21.8% (No. 28)EPA/play on early downs: -0.05 (No. 25)This probably doesn't look as outrageous to you as it does to me. When I see a team has shifted from 15.5 points/game to 31.3, and from scoring on 32% of drives to 53%, I would be expecting a ma sive improvement in early-down performance.But that's not the case for the Bears. These sets of numbers are strikingly similar.As are the rankings.So, if it's not early-down efficiency, it must be third-down efficiency. And sure enough:Third Downs Weeks 1-6:Percentage of third downs to gain a first down: 35.6% (No. 24)EPA/play on third downs: +0.09 (No. 12)Third Downs Weeks 7-9:% of third downs to gain a first down: 55.1% (No. 3)EPA/play on third downs: +0.61 (No. 3)There it is.The Bears are converting way more third downs into first downs over the past three weeks. Normally, a ma sive improvement on third down is on account of much shorter distances to-go, considering no stat is more correlated to third-down conversion rate than distance-to-go.But that's not the case with the Bears:Weeks 1-6 distance-to-go on third down:7.4 yards (No. 24)Weeks 7-9 distance-to-go on third down:7.3 yards (No. 21)For all intents and purposes, the Bears are averaging e sentially the same distance-to-go on third down the past three weeks as they did the first six. And yet they are converting 55.1% (No. 3) of their third downs instead of only 35.6% (No. Carl Gunnarsson Kids Jersey 24).So what is accounting for the ma sive improvement? Let's look at the end results of the third-down pa s plays for the Bears:Weeks 1-6, on 55 Fields dropbacks:Sacks: 8 (15% of all plays)Scrambles: 12 (22%)Pa ses: 35 (64%)Weeks 7-9, on 31 dropbacks:Sacks: 1 (3% of all plays)Scrambles: 9 (29%)Pa ses: 21 (68%)This is ma sive.Fields just isn't taking sacks. And it's not just not taking sacks.When you can AVOID a sack and turn it into a SCRAMBLE for a first down, you're turning a sure punt into potential points. It's almost like avoiding a turnover but to a much le ser degree. Benjamin Solak wrote about the value of scrambles in . In addition to a higher scramble rate and a much lower sack rate, Fields was more efficient with his scrambles. In Weeks 7-9, Fields has turned 89% of his scrambles into first downs, as opposed to 67% of scrambles in Weeks 1-6.These runs are also gaining larger chunks, with 78% gaining 7-plus yards vs. 58% gaining 7-plus yards in Weeks 1-6, and an average of 16.9 YPC the last three weeks vs 8.8 YPC in Weeks 1-6. Obviously, third-down sacks don't convert first downs.As such, when you combine sacks and scrambles, look at what Fields has done:Weeks 1-6:8 first downs on 20 dropbacks (40%) which weren't actual attempts (sacks or scrambles)Weeks 7-9:8 first downs on 10 dropbacks (80%) which weren't actual attempts (sacks or scrambles)That right there has been the major difference in this Bears offense: Justin Fields' ability to avoid sacks on third downs and use his legs to scramble to convert first downs.Sure, there's a slight pa sing efficiency bump on third downs by Fields the past three weeks: They're converting 38% of pa s attempts into first downs the past three weeks as opposed to 31% the first six weeks of the season. And efficiency is up to +0.17/att and 43% succe s the last three weeks vs +0.10 and 34% succe s the first six weeks.To summarize the Bears' first-down rate on all third-down plays, let's examine the splits, and we'll do so using the format of: number of plays (first-down conversion rate).Weeks 1-6:Sacks: 8 (0% first down conversion rate)Scrambles: 12 (67%)Pa ses: 35 (31%)Non-QB runs: 13 (39%)QB runs (non-scrambles): 3 (67%)Overall: 73 (35.6%)Weeks 7-9:Sacks: 1 (0%)Scrambles: 9 (89%)Pa ses: 21 (38%)Non-QB runs: 12 (42%)QB runs (non-scrambles): 5 (100%)Overall: 49 (55.1%)So, what is the end result of more third-down efficiency, driven largely by Fields ability to avoid third downs? Because they're converting more third downs into first downs, they aren't punting as much:Weeks 1-6: 40% of drives ended with a punt (No. 24)Weeks 7-9: 28% of drives ended with a punt (No. 6)And they're sustaining longer drives, which get them into scoring territory:Weeks 1-6: 19% of drives scored points before reaching the red zone (No. 11) and 4% of those were TDs (No. 23)Weeks 7-9: 28% of drives scored points before getting to the red zone (No. 3) and 11% of those were TDs (No. 11)And far more often, these drives are not just getting into scoring territory, they're getting into the red zone:Weeks 1-6: 24% of drives reached the red zone (No. 25)Weeks 7-9: 44% of drives reached the red zone (No. 3)This is all almost entirely centered around their improved third-down efficiency thanks to Fields' ability to turn sacks into scrambles and convert more first downs.But they're also ma sively improved in the red zone over the past three weeks:Weeks 1-6: 47% red zone conversion rate (No. 28)Weeks 7-9: 64% red zone conversion rate (No. 13)Inside the red zone, they've .Weeks 1-6: 81% of red zone yardage coming on the ground (No. 1, NFL avg = 44%)Weeks 7-9: 56% of red zone yardage coming on the ground (No. 15)Fields is pa sing more down in the red zone and the results are improved:Weeks 1-6:4-of-11, -0.91 EPA/att, 17% succe s, 2:1 TD:INT, 1 sack takenWeeks 7-9:9-of-10, +0.64 EPA/att, 55% succe s, 5:0 TD:INT, 1 sack takenThat's correct despite playing half as many games in Weeks 7-9, Fields has almost exactly the same number of red-zone pa sing attempts as the first six weeks of the season.And he's clearly been far more efficient on them.How have the Bears turned their fortunes and provided a far more exciting product these last three weeks?How have they shifted from a team that averaged only 15.5 points per game (No. 31) and saw their quarterback take sacks at the No. 1 highest rate (16.7%) since at least 2000, to now scoring on 53% of their drives (No. 1 in the NFL) and averaging 31.3 points per game (No. 5 in the NFL)?Almost exclusively by having that same quarterback prioritize avoiding sacks on third downs, scrambling for first downs, and entrusting him more in the red zone and increasing their red zone efficiency.Ravens on a Historic PaceThe only teams to lead by 10-plus points in each of their first nine games:2022 2011 0-1 in playoffs (exit in Divisional Round)2009 3-0 in playoffs (Super Bowl Champion)1989 0-1 in playoffs (exit in Divisional Round)1984 2-1 in playoffs (exit in Super Bowl)1964 1-0 in playoffs (AFL Champion)1961 0-1 in playoffs (exit in AFL Championship)1942 0-1 in playoffs (exit in NFL Championship)1934 Bears 0-1 in playoffs (exit in NFL Championship)In the Super Bowl Era, every one of these teams made the playoffs.Two made the Super Bowl.One won the Super Bowl.The Ravens have the second-easiest schedule of remaining opponents in the AFC, and sitting at 6-3 are the top team in the AFC North.This team still has a lot to resolve on both sides of the ball. But they're getting the job done thanks Justin Faulk Jersey to .Against the Saints, the Ravens starting offense:WR1 WR2 RB1 TE1 TE2 We can talk all we want about the seasons of , , , , and even . But I guarantee you look at those WR1-WR2-TE1 combinations and tell me you wouldn't rather have those offenses than what Lamar Jackson has worked with. And yet the Ravens are the only team to have 10-plus point leads in every game.Jackson isn't having his best year, and he also has played some of it while playing through injuries. It's not just the pa sing element that Jackson brings.It's the rushing element that has been invaluable.And in addition, it's his presence on the field which allows the team to run the style of offense that it does which no other team in the league runs and which produces big upside for the running backs.Statistically, Jackson is having his worst pa sing season since becoming a full-time starter, but he has been invaluable to the Ravens' succe s thus far.Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at . NFL trending in this topic
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